Having failed in all his diplomatic endeavors, Erdogan seems willing to accept Obama’s call to attack Syria. Obama has seen that he can wage war on Libya without the Congress’ approval, and he now may be preparing to intensify the air war against Gadhafi and provide air cover to a Turkish campaign in Syria.
Assad has proven himself as shrewd and ruthless a leader as wesuggested years ago. Unlike Gadhafi, who for some odd reason refuses to deploy his SAM batteries against the NATO planes, Assad won’t shrink from launching missiles at Israeli targets to retaliate for an American-sponsored invasion of his turf.
A strong Israeli leader would use this chance to strike at Syria and destroy its 1,400 SCUD missiles. But as during the Desert Storm, Israel would be asked to swallow the blows so that Turkey wouldn’t find itself in the awkward position of joining Israel in an attack on a fellow Muslim state.
Iran is unlikely to unleash its ballistic missiles at Israel to avenge Syria, but might well give such an order to Hezbollah. Iran, though, has overextended its hand in Lebanon: since it brought Hezbollah into the government, the terrorist group has acquired substantial income sources of its own and won’t be eager to risk its government position by attacking Israel.