Much analysis has been poured out since Nasrallah’s speech a week ago to his commanders detailing his plan to launch 10,000 rockets at Israel and capture enclaves in Galilee. That is not realistic.
How many rocket-launching sites and storages Hezbollah might have that we do not know of? A few dozen, perhaps. Add a hundred locations inside villages that might find it difficult to bomb. We’re talking a few hundred rockets that they can launch before being destroyed. And those are frankly low-yield rockets which can damage buildings but not flatten blocks.
But Hezbollah understands that Israel would use a pretext of massive attacks to retaliate against Lebanon and try to oust Hezbollah from it hard-won political position. So it makes little sense to risk such losses to help ayatollahs.