The impasse in Syria rules out any prospect of negotiations and a peaceful solution to the conflict, wrote La Croix. Authorities have successfully recaptures the city and the area captured by the opposition, taking a sample of the Russian military strategy that is applied during the Chechen war: cordon outlying neighborhoods and intersections, the massive bombardment to terrorize civilians in order to force them to leave the area before the attack. The rebels can do nothing except retreat. Meanwhile, the army dominates the border with Lebanon and Turkey, to prevent supplies of weapons of opposition and passage of reinforcements. The balance of forces between the regular army and the armed opposition is absolutely unequal: Free Syrian army is not staffed, poorly prepared and equipped, and even if Saudi Arabia and Qatar to fulfill its promise to supply arms and ammunition, the balance of power will not change, says the publication. In political terms, attempts to force Assad to leave have failed, but three of the draft resolution in the Security Council were rejected because of Russian and Chinese veto, as settlement plan proposed by the League of Arab States.

Only a political solution can stop the vicious circle of violence and emphasizes the publication. But diplomats at the United Nations recognize that even if Kofi Annan, who is familiar with all the parties to the conflict, for 15 days will not be able to achieve anything, “to fear the worst-case scenario.” According to Annan, “without Moscow’s pressure the Syrian regime will not accept any weakening of repression, or to join the political process,” the newspaper quoted. Moscow should not be seen as an obstacle, but as the drive belt dialogue with the forces of Bashar al-Assad, says the correspondent Agnes Rotivel. According to the European Council on Foreign Affairs, even if Bashar Assad is politically and economically weakened, his departure could take months if not years. Experts recommend that the Board establish a contact group with representatives from Russia, the Syrian regime, opposition and neighboring Syria, which will aim to establish an international consensus, the Syrian branch of the crisis on the broader issues and the strengthening of the political opposition.

Expert in the Arab world Shenev Gilles is convinced that if the confrontation continues, can split and weaken Syria’s Shiite axis. In his view, the script will look like this: the opposition militarization and spread throughout the protests escalate into civil war, marked by inter-confessional conflicts, there will be realignment of communities in areas where they feel safe. Alawite minority, which belongs to the clan of Asad, may migrate to Latakia, where they constitute a majority, to make it Alawi bastion. Such a rearrangement will leave the rest of the country under the rule of being in the majority of Sunnis, and along the borders with Turkey and the north-west plateau Jazeera appears Kurdish region. As Christians, those who do not choose to leave the country, grouped in islands such as the Golan Heights or the Alawite area involves Shenev.

Source: La Croix

 

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